According to Catalan leaders, a referendum on the region’s independence should be held by the end of this year (even if this is forbidden by the Spanish constitution). Over a 48 hour timeframe, the region that is larger than Finland or Ireland in terms of population could unilaterally declare its independence and take the risk of leaving Spain. Cultural and political motives have been put forward but the economic benefits are far from clear. As with Brexit, we believe that any Catalexit would plunge the region into a long period of uncertainty and would most probably be negative for the private sector.
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